2025: On Track to Be the Hottest Year on Record — Implications for Gulf Infrastructure

The Temperature Record: 2025 in Context

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed in September 2025 that the January–August global mean temperature anomaly was +1.55°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, making 2025 virtually certain to surpass 2024 as the hottest year in the instrumental record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data show that every month of 2025 has been warmer than the same month in any previous year.

For the Arabian Gulf region, the picture is even more stark. Regional temperatures have been amplifying faster than the global mean, with summer 2025 seeing several milestones:

• Qatar: Doha recorded 51.2°C in July 2025, exceeding its previous record. Mean daily maximum temperatures in July and August were approximately 2°C above the 1991–2020 average.
• UAE: Abu Dhabi International Airport registered 50.8°C. Dubai's wet-bulb temperature reached 34.5°C on three separate occasions, approaching the theoretical human survivability threshold of 35°C.
• Saudi Arabia: Makkah recorded temperatures exceeding 52°C during the Hajj preparation period, prompting unprecedented cooling infrastructure deployment.
• Kuwait: Mitribah recorded 53.2°C, the second-highest temperature ever reliably measured on Earth.

These are not statistical abstractions. They represent operating conditions for infrastructure, construction workers, power systems, and urban populations across the GCC.

Peak Cooling Demand and Energy Infrastructure

Air conditioning accounts for an estimated 60–70 per cent of peak electricity demand in GCC countries during summer months. The relationship between ambient temperature and cooling demand is non-linear: each degree above approximately 35°C increases cooling energy consumption by 3–5 per cent due to reduced heat exchanger efficiency, higher compressor loads, and increased thermal gains through building envelopes.

In 2025, Qatar's peak electricity demand reached approximately 9,800 MW in July, straining Kahramaa's generation and transmission capacity. Key infrastructure implications include:

• Transmission losses: Electrical resistance in conductors increases with temperature, raising transmission losses from a typical 5–7 per cent to 8–10 per cent during peak heat events
• Transformer de-rating: Power transformers must be de-rated when ambient temperatures exceed design assumptions (typically 40–45°C), reducing available capacity at precisely the moment demand peaks
• District cooling efficiency: Chilled water systems, which Qatar has invested in heavily for Lusail City and other developments, lose efficiency as heat rejection temperatures rise, increasing parasitic energy consumption
• Backup generation: Gas turbine efficiency drops by approximately 0.5–0.7 per cent per degree above ISO conditions (15°C), meaning a 50°C day reduces gas turbine output by approximately 15 per cent compared to rated capacity

Thermal Expansion and Material Degradation

Extreme heat affects the physical properties of construction materials in ways that compound over time:

Concrete

Concrete surface temperatures in direct sunlight in the Gulf can exceed 70°C in summer. Thermal cycling between day (70°C) and night (35°C) accelerates micro-cracking and spalling. The coefficient of thermal expansion for concrete is approximately 10 × 10^-6 per °C, meaning a 10-metre concrete element experiences length changes of 3.5 mm between seasonal temperature extremes — enough to stress expansion joints beyond design limits if not properly accounted for.

Steel

Steel structures and reinforcement are subject to differential thermal expansion relative to concrete. Exposed steel members (bridge decks, pipe racks, steel-frame buildings) can reach 80°C in direct sunlight, affecting connection integrity and requiring thermal stress analysis during design.

Asphalt

Road surface temperatures in Qatar regularly exceed 70°C in summer, causing:

• Rutting and permanent deformation under heavy vehicle loads
• Bleeding (migration of binder to the surface), reducing skid resistance
• Accelerated oxidation and embrittlement of bituminous binder
• Thermal cracking when surfaces cool rapidly

Qatar's Ashghal (Public Works Authority) has adopted modified binder specifications (PG 76-10 and higher) for major roads, but even these performance-graded binders are being tested by temperatures that exceed the upper design range.

Polymeric Materials

Waterproofing membranes, sealants, geomembranes, and cable insulation degrade faster under sustained high temperatures. UV exposure compounds thermal degradation, reducing the service life of exposed polymer components by 20–40 per cent compared to temperate climates.

Worker Heat Stress: A Growing Safety Crisis

Outdoor construction workers in the Gulf face heat stress conditions that are among the most severe encountered anywhere in the world. The relevant physiological metric is the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which integrates temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.

Qatar's Law No. 17 of 2021 prohibits outdoor work between 10:00 and 15:30 from 1 June to 15 September when WBGT exceeds specified thresholds. Similar regulations exist in the UAE (Ministerial Decree No. 401 of 2015) and Saudi Arabia.

In 2025, the effective working window for outdoor construction was further compressed:

The productivity implications are significant: construction project schedules in the Gulf must account for a 30–40 per cent reduction in outdoor labour productivity during summer months. Environmental Impact Assessments for major construction projects should include occupational heat stress assessments and mitigation plans as standard practice.

Heat stress is not just a worker welfare issue. It is a project delivery risk, a legal liability, and an increasing constraint on the Gulf's construction-led economic model.

Infrastructure Design Standards Under Pressure

Many infrastructure design standards in use across the GCC were developed using historical climate data that no longer represents operating conditions. Key areas requiring review:

• HVAC design temperatures: ASHRAE design conditions for Doha list 1 per cent cooling design dry-bulb temperature as 46.2°C (2017 data). Actual temperatures in 2025 exceeded this for multiple days, meaning HVAC systems designed to ASHRAE standards could not maintain design indoor conditions during peak events.
• Structural thermal loads: Eurocode and ACI standards use temperature ranges that may not capture Gulf extremes. Designers should use site-specific climate projections, not historical averages.
• Pavement design: Ashghal's QCS (Qatar Construction Specifications) pavement design temperatures should be reviewed against observed surface temperatures, with consideration for further warming through 2050.
• Pipeline and tank design: Thermal expansion of above-ground pipelines and storage tanks requires reassessment as maximum operating temperatures increase.
• Electrical infrastructure: Cable ampacity ratings, transformer loading limits, and switchgear temperature ratings all require review against actual ambient conditions.

EIA Climate Risk Assessment Requirements

Environmental Impact Assessments for infrastructure projects in Qatar should now routinely include climate risk and adaptation assessment as a core component. This is increasingly expected by MoECC and is mandatory for projects seeking IFC financing (under IFC PS1 and the TCFD-aligned Climate Risk Assessment guidance).

A robust climate risk assessment for Gulf infrastructure projects should cover:

• Physical risk screening: Assess exposure to extreme heat, sea level rise, storm surge, dust storms, and flash flooding using IPCC AR6 regional projections
• Design life analysis: Evaluate climate projections over the full design life of the infrastructure (typically 25–100 years). A building designed in 2025 for a 50-year service life will operate until 2075 under significantly different climate conditions.
• Adaptation measures: Identify design modifications, operational adjustments, and maintenance strategies to maintain functionality under projected conditions
• Cost-benefit analysis: Quantify the cost of adaptation measures versus the cost of climate-related failures, disruptions, and accelerated maintenance

Adaptation Strategies for Construction and Operations

Design Phase

• Use forward-looking climate data (IPCC AR6, CMIP6 projections) rather than historical averages for design parameters
• Specify materials with demonstrated performance at Gulf extreme temperatures (high-performance concrete, modified bitumen, UV-stabilised polymers)
• Design for thermal resilience: adequate expansion joints, thermal breaks, reflective surfaces, shading structures
• Oversize HVAC and cooling systems by 10–15 per cent beyond current design standards to accommodate future warming

Construction Phase

• Implement WBGT-based work-rest schedules with real-time monitoring
• Provide mechanised alternatives to manual labour for high-heat tasks
• Schedule concrete pours and other temperature-sensitive activities during cooler periods
• Protect stored materials from direct solar exposure to prevent pre-construction degradation

Operational Phase

• Increase maintenance frequency for heat-exposed components during summer months
• Monitor structural expansion and contraction with strain gauges and thermal imaging
• Review energy demand projections annually and plan capacity additions accordingly
• Develop extreme heat contingency plans for critical infrastructure (hospitals, data centres, water treatment plants)

Conclusion

The record temperatures of 2025 are not an anomaly. They are a data point on a trend line that will continue to rise for decades regardless of emissions pathways. For Gulf infrastructure, this means that design standards, construction practices, and operational assumptions must be recalibrated for a hotter future. Environmental Impact Assessments that fail to address climate risk are incomplete. Infrastructure designed without thermal resilience will fail prematurely. And construction programmes that do not account for shrinking safe working windows will face delays and safety incidents.

The Gulf has always built in extreme heat. The difference now is that "extreme" is being redefined, and the infrastructure designed today must function in the extremes of 2050 and beyond.